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Actuals

Actuals are the true outcomes of predictions (the customer churned, the claim was fraud), usually known some time after the prediction. With actuals, drift measures the version's real performance, by its task (see The model's task).

Importing actuals​

  1. On the model's Monitoring tab or drift dashboard, select Import Actuals.
  2. Upload a CSV (any size) or pick one from a shared volume, with:
    • a predictionId column (the id a prediction returned) or an entityId column (your id sent with the prediction),
    • an actual column (the true outcome),
    • optionally actualAt (when the outcome happened).
  3. Select Import. The import shows the rows read, recorded, replaced and refused as it runs, and lists every refused row with its line in the file and the reason.

Importing an actual again for the same key replaces it, so correcting a file and importing it again is safe. The Actuals Imports list on the Monitoring tab keeps every import.

You can also record an actual for a single prediction an A/B test routed, from that prediction's details (see Recording outcomes).

How actuals match predictions​

  • An actual with a prediction id labels that prediction.
  • An actual with an entity id labels that entity's predictions made within the model's Actuals window before the outcome (its actualAt, else when it was imported).

Either may arrive first. Set the Actuals window (days) in Monitoring settings: 1 to 90 days, 14 by default. In the Predictions list each prediction shows its actual, marked Correct or Incorrect, or Pending until one arrives.